Montenegro’s external trade situation has deteriorated significantly at the onset of 2026, with a notable decline in both exports and imports. However, the decrease in exports has been more pronounced, revealing vulnerabilities in the country’s export structure.
Recent data from MONSTAT indicates that Montenegro’s total foreign trade for January 2026 was valued at €233.5 million, reflecting an 18.8% decrease year-on-year. This downturn was primarily driven by a sharp reduction in exports.
Exports plummeted to €29.2 million, marking a 32.7% decline, while imports fell to €204.3 million, which is a more moderate decrease of 16.3%. Consequently, the trade deficit expanded to approximately €175.1 million, only slightly improved from the previous year due to lower import demand rather than any recovery in exports.
The export-to-import coverage ratio has declined further to 14.3%, down from 17.7% a year earlier, indicating a weakened ability of the domestic economy to generate foreign currency through goods trade.
Structurally, Montenegro’s export profile is heavily reliant on a narrow range of products. The bulk of exports continues to come from mineral fuels and electricity, which accounted for around €10 million, with electricity alone contributing €8.4 million. The significant drop in this segment, particularly in electricity exports, has been a key factor behind the overall decline in exports.
On the import side, demand remains focused on capital and consumer goods. The category of machinery and transport equipment led imports at €48.1 million, which included €20.9 million for road vehicles, underscoring Montenegro’s ongoing reliance on imported industrial inputs and consumer goods.
Regionally, trade flows are concentrated, with Serbia remaining Montenegro’s largest trading partner, accounting for €7.8 million in exports and €33.5 million in imports. Other significant export destinations include Bosnia and Herzegovina (€4.8 million) and Luxembourg (€2.1 million). Meanwhile, imports were notably influenced by China (€25.9 million) and Germany (€19.1 million).
The regional trade structure highlights Montenegro’s integration within the frameworks of CEFTA and EU markets, which dominate its trade activities. However, even within these arrangements, the country continues to face a persistent deficit, with trade with the EU alone resulting in a deficit of €77.2 million, while CEFTA partners contributed a deficit of €36.8 million.
A detailed analysis of sectoral composition reveals additional challenges, with exports of mineral fuels declining by over 40%. Exports of other categories such as raw materials and metals have also seen significant reductions due to price fluctuations and decreased production levels. Conversely, imports of critical industrial categories—including machinery, chemicals, and manufactured goods—remain high, hindering any substantial improvement in the trade deficit.
The monthly figures further underscore the scale of Montenegro’s trade imbalance. January 2026 recorded one of the lowest absolute trade volumes but still exhibited a deficit nearing €175 million. This suggests that mere contraction does not adequately address the underlying structural issues.
The data reflects ongoing trends within Montenegro’s external sector: a lack of export diversification, heavy dependence on energy-related exports, and sustained reliance on imported goods across industrial and consumer sectors.
