Montenegro’s merchandise trade reached €2.44 billion in the first half of 2026, with the increase driven entirely by higher imports as exports weakened. The result was a goods deficit of approximately €1.92 billion, highlighting the country’s reliance on tourism revenues, foreign investment and external financing to support domestic consumption and investment activity.
Imports Rise While Export Coverage Declines
Preliminary data show that Montenegro exported goods worth €261.4 million between January and June 2026, a decrease of 7.4% compared with the same period of 2025. Imports increased by 3.4% to €2.18 billion, reducing the export-to-import coverage ratio from 13.4% to 12%. The figures mean that Montenegro exported only around €12 of goods for every €100 imported, with imports exceeding exports by more than eight times.
The first-half goods deficit was approximately €93 million higher than the level implied by comparable 2025 figures. If annualised, the deficit would approach €3.8 billion, although the final result will depend on tourism-related imports, electricity production, energy prices and the timing of major machinery and vehicle purchases.
Tourism and Services Offset Merchandise Imbalance
The goods deficit does not represent Montenegro’s entire external position because the country generates significant services exports, particularly from tourism, transport and other business services. Foreign visitors provide euro inflows that help finance imports of food, fuel, vehicles, equipment and consumer goods used by households, businesses and the tourism sector.
The main vulnerability remains the size of the merchandise gap. A large services surplus is required to compensate for limited domestic goods production, leaving the economy sensitive to changes in tourism receipts, energy exports, foreign investment and international financing conditions. Montenegro’s current-account deficit was estimated at around 18% of GDP in 2025, among the highest ratios in Europe. The International Monetary Fund expects the deficit to remain elevated over the medium term, despite some expected recovery in electricity exports.
Energy Dominates Export Structure
The composition of exports highlights Montenegro’s narrow production base. Mineral fuels, lubricants and related products generated €86.6 million, representing approximately 33% of total merchandise exports. Electricity alone accounted for €67.4 million, or almost 26% of total exports. The performance of electricity exports depends heavily on Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG), hydrological conditions, availability of the Pljevlja thermal power plant, domestic consumption and regional wholesale electricity prices.
Electricity production can allow Montenegro to become a net exporter during favourable hydrological periods, while dry years or major plant outages can quickly increase dependence on imports. The first half of 2026 demonstrated this volatility, with electricity remaining the country’s largest export product while total merchandise exports still declined by 7.4%. Without electricity exports worth €67.4 million, remaining goods exports would have amounted to approximately €194 million over six months.
Regional Markets Absorb Most Exports
Montenegro’s merchandise exports remain concentrated in neighbouring markets. Serbia purchased €70.1 million of Montenegrin goods during the first six months of 2026, representing almost 27% of total exports.
Bosnia and Herzegovina followed with €32.8 million, accounting for approximately 12.5%, while Kosovo imported €21 million, equal to around 8% of exports. Together, these three markets absorbed more than 47% of Montenegro’s merchandise exports. Regional markets remain important because of lower transport costs, established commercial relationships and easier access for smaller producers that may not yet have the scale, certification or distribution capacity required for Western European markets. Regional demand alone is insufficient to significantly expand Montenegro’s export base.
Serbia Remains Largest Import Partner
Serbia was also Montenegro’s largest source of imports during the first half of 2026. Imports from Serbia reached €372 million, representing approximately 17% of total goods imports. The bilateral goods deficit was close to €302 million. Serbian companies supplied Montenegro with food products, beverages, medicines, construction materials, electricity, machinery, household goods and retail products through established distribution networks.
China was the second-largest supplier, with imports of €287 million, or approximately 13% of the total. Germany followed with €204 million, representing just over 9% of imports. Combined imports from Serbia, China and Germany reached €863 million, accounting for almost 40% of Montenegro’s total import bill.
Machinery and Vehicles Lead Import Categories
Machinery and transport equipment represented the largest import category, reaching €536.6 million, or almost 25% of total imports. Road vehicles accounted for €207.5 million, equal to approximately 9.5% of total merchandise imports. Part of this expenditure reflects investment activity, as imported machinery, construction equipment, energy technology and vehicles support infrastructure, tourism and industrial projects. The economic impact depends on whether imported equipment creates future export capacity or primarily satisfies domestic demand.
Investment Cycle Increases Import Demand
Montenegro’s current investment cycle is contributing to higher imports of equipment and materials. Coastal resorts, residential developments, road projects, energy investments and commercial construction require foreign-sourced elevators, cooling systems, electrical installations, façade materials, furniture, vehicles and specialised machinery.
The property-led tourism model has a mixed external effect. Foreign investment in apartments and villas brings capital into Montenegro, but part of those funds is used to purchase imported construction materials and equipment. Unlike tourism businesses that can generate recurring revenue, privately owned residential properties generally represent one-time transactions unless incorporated into professionally managed rental systems.
Food Imports Remain a Structural Challenge
The tourism sector creates significant seasonal demand for food and beverages, but Montenegro continues to import a large share of products consumed by hotels, restaurants and visitors. In 2025, agricultural and food imports reportedly exceeded €1 billion, while exports reached approximately one-tenth of that value.
The development opportunity lies in increasing domestic supply of meat, dairy products, fruit, vegetables, wine, water, fish and processed foods.
Domestic producers, including Plantaže, Mesopromet and Franca, demonstrate that larger-scale production is possible. However, many smaller producers face challenges related to supply volumes, certification, cold-chain logistics, packaging and delivery reliability. Reducing food import dependence requires stronger links between producers, hotels and retailers through storage, processing capacity, logistics systems and longer-term supply agreements.
Industrial Base Requires New Export Models
Montenegro’s previous export structure relied heavily on the KAP aluminium complex, the Nikšić steelworks, mining and electricity production.
The reduction or interruption of these activities lowered export capacity without creating an equivalent replacement in higher-value manufacturing. A return to traditional heavy industry faces additional challenges due to stricter EU environmental and carbon requirements. Competitiveness now depends on efficient production, low-carbon electricity, emissions control systems and verified product-level carbon data.
Potential growth areas include aluminium processing, metal fabrication, electrical equipment, marine engineering, renewable-energy components, wood products and specialised food production.
Port of Bar Identified as Strategic Asset
The Port of Bar remains a key element in Montenegro’s potential export development strategy. The country has a deep-water commercial port, railway access towards Serbia and regional road connections, but the port’s role in supporting export-oriented industry remains limited. Potential development areas include warehousing, customs processing, cold-chain logistics, light assembly and regional distribution services.
The Bar–Belgrade railway also provides strategic relevance for regional cargo flows. Improved freight operations and intermodal connections could increase transport activity, although these revenues would be recorded mainly as services exports rather than goods exports.
EU Integration Requires Export Readiness
EU accession would change Montenegro’s trade environment by integrating the country into the EU customs union and potentially improving investor confidence, but it would not automatically eliminate the trade deficit. Domestic producers will need to meet EU requirements in areas including sanitary standards, product conformity, technical documentation, environmental compliance and supply-chain traceability.
Energy and industrial exporters will also need systems for emissions measurement and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reporting. Montenegro’s first-half trade figures show an economy with strong foreign spending inflows but a limited base of internationally competitive goods production. Imports of €2.18 billion support consumption, construction and investment, but exports of only €261.4 million provide a limited counterbalance.
Tourism revenues, real-estate investment and remittances continue to finance the imbalance, but the economy remains exposed to changes in visitor demand, property investment flows, electricity production and external financing conditions. The decline in the export-to-import coverage ratio from 13.4% to 12% indicates that overall trade activity is increasing while the gap between imports and exports continues to widen. Montenegro’s future growth will depend on converting tourism, infrastructure and energy investment into domestic production capacity that can generate recurring export revenues.
