Montenegro’s exports of goods and services returned to year-on-year growth in the second quarter, with tourism contributing to a recovery that saw net exports make a positive contribution to GDP growth for the first time since summer 2023.
Real exports of goods and services increased 2.2% year on year in Q2, ending five consecutive quarters of decline, according to the European Commission. Strong tourism performance was among the factors supporting the improvement.
The broader external position remains under pressure. Montenegro’s services trade surplus declined to 18.8% of GDP in the four quarters to June, compared with a higher level a year earlier. Over the same period, the current-account deficit widened to 20.9% of GDP, while the merchandise trade deficit reached 44.7% of GDP.
Tourism continues to generate substantial foreign revenue, but the services surplus has not been sufficient to offset the country’s demand for imported goods.
For tourism investors, the external trade figures highlight the importance of how accommodation and destination businesses generate revenue and source their inputs. Higher-value accommodation, longer operating seasons, greater visitor spending and increased use of locally sourced products can strengthen tourism’s contribution to the external balance. Projects that depend heavily on imported construction materials and concentrate activity in short peak seasons have a different economic impact.
The European Commission’s report does not provide visitor numbers, occupancy rates or hotel transaction data. Those indicators require separate information from MONSTAT and tourism-industry sources. The report instead shows the role of tourism in national accounts, where export performance can influence quarterly economic growth despite the wider economy’s dependence on imports. For 2027, the relevant measure for tourism’s external contribution will be the net foreign revenue generated by visitors after accounting for imported inputs and infrastructure costs, alongside growth in arrivals.
