The economic editorial group STEGA analyzed IMF findings, warning that the Montenegrin government continues an unsustainable economic course that risks long-term damage.
They argue that the IMF has confirmed their earlier warnings that the government’s model lacks a clear plan, relies on short-term populist measures, and ignores long-term consequences. Fiscal deficit is projected at 3.5–3.7% of GDP in 2025, rising toward 4% by the end of the decade, breaching fiscal responsibility law. Public debt could climb to 65% of GDP by 2030, undermining fiscal sustainability.
STEGA highlights that health care and pensions remain major budget pressures, yet reforms are absent. Instead, the government increases spending and raises taxes in tourism and excise duties to offset lost revenue from the “Europe Now 2” program, which reduced budget income.
They also point to external imbalances: a current account deficit of 18% of GDP in 2025, heavy dependence on imports, low productive investment, and inflation rising again to 4.6% in August 2025. Wage growth is outpacing productivity, threatening competitiveness.
According to STEGA, the way forward is fiscal consolidation, reform of public administration, pensions and healthcare, stronger fiscal institutions, and diversification of investment. Without immediate change, they warn Montenegro will miss its goal of eurozone entry in 2028, lose fiscal credibility, face higher borrowing costs, and see declining living standards.
