Montenegro’s external trade reached €4.14 billion in the first ten months of 2025, according to recent analysis published by Monte.business. The figure represents a 6.4% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by stronger imports rather than export expansion. The widening gap illustrates both the dynamism and fragility of Montenegro’s economic model.
The increase in imports is partly a function of domestic demand. Consumption has remained surprisingly resilient, bolstered by rising wages, stable tourism proceeds and an active real estate market. Imports of machinery, construction materials, food products and energy components all contributed to the uptick. On the one hand, rising imports signal confidence: households are spending, businesses are investing, and the private sector is preparing for future growth.
But on the other hand, the softening export performance highlights structural constraints. Montenegro’s export base remains narrow, relying on metals, energy, agricultural goods and a limited set of manufactured products. Global price movements, supply-chain frictions and environmental regulations have disproportionately affected the country’s exporters. The result is a classic small-economy trade imbalance: robust demand at home paired with limited ability to generate external revenues.
Monte.news noted that the composition of trade partners is shifting. The European Union remains Montenegro’s dominant economic counterpart, absorbing most export categories, but emerging markets in Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa are gaining relevance — especially for food and raw materials. This diversification may prove valuable in a more uncertain global market.
The trade imbalance, while persistent, is not inherently destabilising. Montenegro’s services surplus — driven by tourism — helps offset the goods deficit. However, an economy that imports most of its inputs while exporting limited value-added goods faces long-term competitiveness challenges.
To address this, Montenegro will need to expand its industrial and agricultural capacities, invest in processing industries, and strengthen its logistics corridors, including those tied to the Port of Bar. The future of Montenegrin trade lies not in shrinking imports, but in boosting export sophistication. Until then, rising trade volumes will reflect economic activity — but not yet economic transformation.
