In May 2026, Montenegro’s electricity market exhibited notable dynamics, with average BELEN prices decreasing significantly. The average price fell from €98.76/MWh in the first half of the month to €83.92/MWh in the latter half, marking a decline of nearly €15/MWh. This shift indicates a growing alignment of Montenegro’s market with pricing trends in Albania and North Macedonia, rather than with Croatia or Hungary.
This price movement can be attributed to several structural factors. Firstly, improved hydro conditions across the Western Balkans have led to increased reservoir inflows, enhancing low-cost generation capabilities throughout the region. Secondly, strong solar energy production in neighboring countries such as Albania, Serbia, and North Macedonia has resulted in midday oversupply situations that have begun to affect interconnected markets.
Additionally, Montenegro’s strategic position along the Adriatic export corridor to Italy has gained importance. Regional net exports to Italy transitioned from an average import level of 148 MW during the first half of May to exports of 102 MW in the second half. This shift highlights the increasing competitiveness of electricity generation in Southeast Europe.
The developments in May also signal implications for future renewable energy projects in Montenegro, particularly those focused on solar energy. The month underscored the necessity for project developers to reassess merchant revenue assumptions due to intensifying daytime price pressures. Solar projects that depend solely on daytime production face heightened risks of cannibalization as regional photovoltaic capacity continues to grow.
In contrast, wind energy projects appear to be better positioned within this evolving landscape. Their strong production profiles during evening and nighttime hours align with periods when solar output diminishes, allowing for sustained higher system prices. This trend reinforces a widening valuation gap between wind and solar assets across the Western Balkans.
