Montenegro’s latest foreign-trade results, published this week by MONSTAT and widely covered by MINA Business, offer one of the clearest snapshots of the country’s economic structure and vulnerabilities. The numbers tell a story that is both familiar and increasingly urgent: imports are surging, exports are weakening, and the country’s dependence on foreign supply chains continues to deepen. For policymakers, investors and analysts, the trade data has become a focal point of national economic debate — not merely for what it says about today, but for what it signals about Montenegro’s ability to grow sustainably over the next decade.
According to official reporting, Montenegro’s total external trade in goods reached €4.14 billion in the first ten months of 2025, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the same period last year. On the surface, this seems like a promising indicator of activity; increased trade often correlates with rising household consumption, expanding business investment and deeper integration with regional markets. However, the underlying components reveal a less comfortable picture. Exports declined by 4.5%, falling to €458.1 million, while imports increased by nearly 8%, climbing to €3.68 billion. The result is a significantly widened trade gap — already one of the deepest in Europe relative to GDP.
This widening deficit is not a new phenomenon for Montenegro. The country’s structural economic model — heavily oriented toward tourism, domestic consumption and imported construction materials — naturally produces higher import levels. But the decline in exports raises red flags. Even during years of solid GDP growth, Montenegro’s productive base remains narrow. The fall in exports suggests not just cyclical disruption but a deeper issue: a lack of diversified, competitive export industries capable of offsetting rising consumption-driven imports.
Energy remains Montenegro’s largest export category. In 2025, the export of electricity reached nearly €80 million, according to MINA’s summary of the MONSTAT dataset. Electricity exports depend heavily on hydrological conditions. A strong rainfall year can boost hydroelectric output, while droughts can limit generation and force electricity imports. This leaves the export profile highly volatile and environmentally dependent, not anchored in stable industrial production.
Beyond energy, Montenegro exports relatively small volumes of aluminium and metals, agricultural goods, and selected manufactured products. While aluminium once dominated Montenegro’s export earnings, production at the Podgorica Aluminium Plant (KAP) has diminished sharply over the past decade due to economic, ownership and energy-cost issues. What remains of that industrial legacy contributes little to the export portfolio, and the country has not fully replaced it with new industrial capacities.
On the import side, the story is fundamentally different. The categories fueling the rise include motor vehicles (over €346 million in imports), machinery, food products, construction materials and consumer goods. These categories reflect both structural dependence and rising living standards. Montenegro’s middle class, especially in Podgorica and coastal municipalities, has been upgrading vehicles, appliances and lifestyle goods throughout 2024 and 2025. Tourism also inflates imports: hotels, apartments, restaurants and construction projects all rely on imported flooring, furniture, mechanical systems and food items.
The structure of import growth also reveals Montenegro’s exposure to global price shifts. Higher transport costs, rising food prices and fluctuations in global automotive supply chains all influence Montenegro’s import bill. As long as domestic production remains limited, the economy will remain vulnerable to such external price movements.
Geographically, Montenegro’s trade orientation remains stable. The largest export destination is Serbia, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia and, to a lesser extent, EU member states such as Italy and Croatia. On the import side, Serbia again leads, followed by China, Germany and Italy. The prominence of Serbia reflects historical ties, logistical convenience and CEFTA integration, while the rise of China highlights the shift in global supply chains that has accelerated over the past decade.
But trade orientation is not simply about partners; it is about strategy. Montenegro’s policymakers have repeatedly stated that the country must diversify exports and increase domestic production. Recent legislative changes — including the adoption of the quality-schemes law for agricultural and food products — aim to increase the competitiveness of Montenegrin products in regional and EU markets. But regulatory alignment alone will not produce export growth. It must be accompanied by investment in agriculture, manufacturing, digital industries and energy value chains — areas where Montenegro has long struggled to achieve scale.
The widening trade deficit carries immediate macroeconomic implications. A higher deficit exerts downward pressure on foreign currency reserves, increases reliance on external financing, and complicates fiscal planning. Tourism revenues help offset the imbalance, but tourism is inherently seasonal and increasingly vulnerable to climate-related disruptions. A rainy summer, a geopolitical shock or even a shift in European travel patterns could leave Montenegro exposed.
This vulnerability is already a topic of debate in local economic circles. Several analysts quoted in media have pointed out that Montenegro must urgently address its structural weaknesses. The country’s ability to finance imports depends heavily on stable tourism inflows, remittances and foreign-investment cycles. In years when foreign direct investment slows — or shifts toward non-productive sectors like residential real estate — the long-term capacity to reduce the deficit diminishes.
One emerging bright spot is the gradual growth of Montenegro’s green-energy sector. With international support for renewable energy, including EU-backed financing mechanisms, Montenegro has the potential to become a net exporter of clean electricity. Small hydropower plants, solar arrays and wind parks are expanding their footprint. But the sector remains heavily influenced by environmental debates, regulatory challenges and investment uncertainties. The potential is enormous, but realisation requires a stable policy environment and long-term planning.
Agriculture presents another potential avenue for export growth. The newly adopted quality-scheme legislation is a foundational step, but the sector still lacks modern processing facilities, export-oriented cooperatives and access to EU-level certification infrastructure. With proper investment, however, Montenegro could follow the example of Slovenia or Croatia by developing high-value agro-products such as organic goods, olive oils, cheeses, cured meats and specialty wines.
Another issue raised in local reporting is the need for modern industrial zones. While Montenegro has several designated zones, many lack the infrastructure required to attract serious investors. Roads, energy supply, water systems and administrative efficiency must improve before such zones can play a meaningful role in export diversification.
At a more strategic level, Montenegro’s trade position reflects a deeper question: can the country redefine itself from a service-based economy into a more balanced, production-supporting economy? Tourism will always remain central, but it cannot be the only engine. Trade data shows that Montenegro imports almost everything it consumes but exports very little of what it produces. This is not sustainable over the long term.
Improving the trade balance requires a multi-layered approach: expanding agricultural output, modernising manufacturing, strengthening the digital economy, improving transport infrastructure and creating incentives for export-oriented investment. EU accession could provide access to new markets, structural funds and regulatory frameworks that support this transition — but only if Montenegro builds the institutional capacity to use those tools effectively.
In the immediate term, the trade data serves as a wake-up call. Rising imports may signal confidence and activity, but declining exports signal a narrowing productive base. Policymakers must treat these numbers not as statistical fluctuations but as indicators of the economy’s deeper structural foundation. Montenegro’s challenge is not merely balancing trade; it is balancing its long-term development model. The latest data should be interpreted as a warning — and an opportunity to shift toward a more sustainable and competitive economic path.
