The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Montenegro’s economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, driven largely by a moderate summer tourist season. The IMF advised authorities to implement measures to contain public spending, increase revenue, and align fiscal policy with Montenegro’s Fiscal Responsibility Law, supporting the country’s goal of joining the eurozone by 2028.
Economic growth is projected to remain stable at around 3.2% over 2026–2030, consistent with the country’s potential growth rate. Inflation is expected to average 4% this year, gradually falling to 2% in the medium term. The IMF noted that the economy has converged toward its productive potential, around 3.5%, following the post-pandemic recovery.
Short-term priorities include recalibrating fiscal policy to adapt to changing economic conditions, while long-term objectives focus on unlocking economic potential beyond tourism, increasing workforce participation—especially for women—and improving the quality of public investment. Public investments must be balanced with pressures on government spending.
The IMF recommended limiting the growth of public sector wages, eliminating unproductive tax exemptions, and saving revenues from airport concession fees to strengthen public finances. The IMF clarified that wage growth limits refer to the overall public wage fund, not individual salaries, and suggested that for the next three years, total public sector wage growth should not exceed inflation.
Montenegro’s banking system was deemed strong, resilient, and stable, with high levels of capital, liquidity, and asset quality. The IMF also highlighted Montenegro’s integration into European payment systems and progress toward green transition, reducing emissions and diversifying energy sources.
Finance Minister Novica Vuković emphasized that IMF recommendations confirm the government’s approach toward sustainable public finances and Montenegro’s path to EU membership, while the IMF’s Srikant Seshadri noted that reforms such as “Europe Now 1 and 2” have increased employment, formalized wages, and boosted tax revenues.
The IMF projects a fiscal deficit of 3.5–3.7% of GDP, slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s forecast of 3.5%, and stressed the importance of ongoing measures to offset revenue losses from social contribution reforms.
Central Bank Governor Irena Radović confirmed the stability and resilience of Montenegro’s banking sector and emphasized ongoing efforts to strengthen institutional frameworks, including completing key appointments within the year.
