Petar Golubović, a tourism specialist, believes that Montenegro will at least maintain last year’s tourism revenue during the 2025 season. He expects a rise in registered tourist arrivals but predicts the number of overnight stays will remain stable.
Golubović notes that many beaches on the Budva Riviera are prepared with beach furniture and temporary hospitality facilities to welcome tourists, although ongoing construction projects, especially on the main Tivat-Budva road, present challenges for visitors.
Data for the first five months of 2025 show a 5.5% increase in registered tourist arrivals compared to 2024, totaling 31,376 more arrivals. However, overnight stays decreased by 7%, primarily due to fewer Russian and Ukrainian tourists, especially in private accommodation. Excluding these markets, overnight stays would have slightly increased.
He explains that shorter stays are common this year, but overall statistics reflect positive tourism trends. Golubović points out that many Russian and Ukrainian visitors who emigrated to Montenegro during the 2023 conflict are counted in official statistics, which distorts the real tourism picture.
The pre-season saw strong occupancy in core accommodation types and increased tourist arrivals from non-European markets like China, Israel, the USA, and Azerbaijan, the latter boosted by a new flight connection to Tivat Airport. Private accommodation notably hosted most Azerbaijani tourists, reflecting the positive impact of Montenegro’s temporary visa-free regime.
Western European markets such as the UK and France showed growth, while Germany and Scandinavian countries saw declines. The US market is growing significantly. Serbia, Montenegro’s key regional market, has increased individual tourist arrivals by 25%, though group arrivals fell by 4%. Golubović suspects improved registration practices partly explain this rise.
He warns that external factors, like the recent Israel-Iran conflict, can abruptly affect tourism flows. For example, Israeli tourist arrivals dropped to zero from June 13 to July 1, despite an 88% increase in arrivals in the first five months of the year compared to 2024.
Golubović remains cautiously optimistic that Montenegro will match last year’s tourism performance if no further major disruptions occur.
